the results can be summarized as follows. in japan,demographics are defined by a sustained decline in birth rates and an increase in longevity,leading to an aging of the population.the sharp decline in fertility rates is also responsible for a significant decline of japan's population. as a result of a contracting workforce, the level of real GDP is projected to fall (from a baseline with a constant workforce)by about 20 percent cumulatively over the next half-century or so. in terms of growth, annual GDP growth in japan may be lower by about 0.5 percent for some time as the economy settles to a long-run equilibrium with a permanently higher elderly dependency ratio and smaller supply of labor.
in per capita terms,GDP per person declines slightly in the long run (relative to baseline。)output falls in proportion to the contraction of labor-measured in efficiency units. however, the percent decline in effective labor supply is larger than the fall in the (adult)population,as the share of elderly increases. investment and saving levels also decline with GDP through the adjustment process. the decline in investment reflects the desire to shed capital in the wake of the contraction in labor and output, though investment rates(as a share of GDP)remain unchanged. however,saving rates and,hence,the current account ratio increase slightly as the population ages. despite a higher proportion of elderly (who tend to save less),the increase in longevity and the decline in the inflow of young agents(who tend to have high consumption propensities)act to raise saving rates in japan.
in terms of policy implications, the analysis highlights the importance of taking into account prospective changes in the macroeconomic environment when evaluating policies that address the challenges posed by population aging. an assessment of fiscal sustainability, for example,that focused only on the social security dimensions would miss an important component of the analysis if it ignored the macroeconomic implications of demographic changes for the fiscal accounts. similarly, the endogenous response in private behavior to various policy changes should also be taken into account when examining policy reforms. on this last point,the simulation analysis suggests that changes in social security benefits can have a notable impact on private sector saving. in particular, a balanced decline in benefit and contribution rates is shown to boost private saving rates by nearly half of the reduction in benefit rates, as agents anticipate having to self-finance more of their consumption in retirement.
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